Sunday, January 8, 2012

Bang a Gong...Get it On

The Race

The Iowa Caucus is over and we now know..well..nothing.  Statistically it was a three way tie...Romney, Santorum and Paul. Newt placed a distant (statistically) fourth.  What we do know is that Bachman is out...and that other guy is not looking too well.  But not all is lost...we now present you with New Hampshire.

New Hampshire shares similarities with is a small state in relation to some of the primaries that follow. This allows candidates on a budget to compete with the big guys.  It also allows amateur and professional statisticians to practice their art.  Yes it is an art.

If I had to predict this next race I would stack them up as being statistically the same as Iowa, unless...and the unless is the thing that will screw up statistics, there is a story we have not yet heard.

There is a story I want to focus on...what does the other side think?  Keep in mind the Republican Primaries are not just Republicans trading punches, but an opportunity for the other side to get involved.  Debbie Wasserman Schultz has certainly gotten involved. As the head of the Democratic National Committee she is part of the Democrats plan to influence the Republican nomination process.  Conspiracy?  Of course it is the game of politics.

What can we learn from their activity?  First they are afraid...they know that they have not produced what they said they would, and this is a problem for them.  They need to make it look like they are the ones who are working to improve America.  This will not be easy for them. 

Second, they want to convince us to vote for the person they feel they can beat.  This will be made up of very complex statements intended to mislead us into picking a candidate they feel they can beat. 

To counter their attempts we just need to put aside petty differences in candidates and pick the person that will best counter Obama.  Even if that person does not exactly fit into what we think the perfect candidate would be.  Not that I want you to put aside your personal beliefs, but instead compare and contrast those individuals with Obama.  He is after all NOT a good choice.

Here is an exercise for the historical President you most admire.  Decide why you admire that person.  Then select a contemporary person that best embodies those traits.  Finally compare and contrast that person to the candidates running for President.

My next blog will be how I am using that process to pick the candidate that I will support for President.

Good luck to all the candidates as we move to New Hampshire.

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